Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.164455 0.184510 0.206154 0.231267 0.259628 0.290691 0.327330
2025-11-30 0.134349 0.161097 0.192033 0.230527 0.277246 0.332243 0.402089
2025-12-07 0.106850 0.135877 0.171570 0.218846 0.280064 0.356988 0.461502
2025-12-14 0.088113 0.118257 0.157473 0.212509 0.288212 0.389345 0.535795
2025-12-21 0.073762 0.104033 0.145520 0.206960 0.296379 0.422909 0.617538
2025-12-28 0.065031 0.096093 0.140800 0.210466 0.317451 0.477405 0.738177
2026-01-04 0.056281 0.086792 0.132730 0.207762 0.328882 0.519527 0.847791
2026-01-11 0.049852 0.080024 0.127420 0.208359 0.345360 0.571863 0.982907
2026-01-18 0.045008 0.075034 0.124132 0.211600 0.366512 0.634981 1.147508
2026-01-25 0.038856 0.067019 0.114763 0.203142 0.366244 0.661327 1.251481
2026-02-01 0.033436 0.059516 0.105239 0.192951 0.361176 0.678081 1.340329
2026-02-08 0.029631 0.054367 0.099157 0.188101 0.365190 0.712199 1.469244
2026-02-15 0.026187 0.049528 0.093186 0.182950 0.368557 0.747088 1.609934
2026-02-22 0.024234 0.047258 0.091756 0.186531 0.390186 0.822835 1.854471
2026-03-01 0.021444 0.042984 0.085862 0.180151 0.389967 0.852616 2.002272
2026-03-08 0.019352 0.039849 0.081847 0.177142 0.396628 0.898758 2.198751
2026-03-15 0.017520 0.037016 0.078085 0.174123 0.402790 0.944902 2.405473
2026-03-22 0.016495 0.035770 0.077529 0.178226 0.426256 1.036151 2.748175
2026-03-29 0.015152 0.033653 0.074785 0.176821 0.436170 1.095915 3.020180
2026-04-05 0.014132 0.032136 0.073200 0.177966 0.452700 1.175644 3.366690
2026-04-12 0.013345 0.031060 0.072496 0.181193 0.475213 1.275448 3.795639
2026-04-19 0.012027 0.028564 0.068100 0.174352 0.469651 1.297468 3.994030
2026-04-26 0.010762 0.026048 0.063351 0.165915 0.458346 1.301377 4.137006